And where do they get this information? Why, from the Treasury's Monthly Report for July and estimates that the surplus will only be about $160 billion this year. Since we're only a month and a half from the end of the government's fiscal year, they feel that facts and estimates must be fairly accurate.

The monthly report for July showed that the Social Security Trust Fund had already topped last year's $152 billion mark with two full months to go. This trust fund is the combination of the Federal Old Age and Survivors Insurance fund (FOA&SI) standing at $1.026 trillion on July 31st and the Disability Insurance fund (DI) standing at $134 billion for a combined total of $1.160 trillion.

This means that the Social Security Trust Fund is up $153 billion from its fiscal 2000 closing and bound to top $160 billion in the next two months. Probably topping the $160 billion figure "right now," today.

Do you see where they get the idea that Bush can't help but reach into Social Security's money? If the surplus is only $160 billion this year and that's rock bottom for the poor darlings, then to carry out this year's budget Bush will supposedly have to dip into the Social Security surplus coming in this year. Either that or cut back on remaining program funds.

Now let's look at the truth.

The $153 billion increase in the Social Security Trust Fund is not all surplus money contributed by worker's payroll taxes this year. At least $66.4 billion of that sum came from interest paid against last year's closing balance of $1.007 trillion. Interest paid by simply handing the trust fund more bogus bonds, no money involved.

The Treasury also reported that as of July 31st the average interest handed entitlements like Social Security was 6.059 percent. And that means the real cash profit or surplus Social Security has received from payroll taxes this year is about $86.6 billion with two months to go. Last year it was $95.4 billion and this figure will definitely be topped this fiscal year.

Democrats like Gephardt know this. They're not dumb. They know that their yelling and screaming is only another fear story. But they're quick to point the finger at the other guy, aren't they?

They also do not want anyone looking at where the difference is coming from. If Social Security ends up contributing say $107 billion (as I predicted) and the surplus in their hands ends up at $165 billion—where did the other $58 billion come from? It will be mostly from other entitlements with some from income tax surpluses not refunded or cut back.

We'll know all of this by October 1st, when the new fiscal year begins. But the democrats are already scrambling desperately for campaign points for the upcoming election year.