The New York Post

August 24, 2001, Friday

SECTION: All Editions; Pg. 030

THE BEST SURPLUS

Democrats think they see political gold in them thar "surplus shrinkages." "Dubya blew the surplus," Dems are claiming - hoping to paint the Republican prez as a reckless tax-cutter and thereby boost their own political fortunes.

Trouble is, their entire argument is built on lies. Social Security "trust funds" at risk? Sorry, such "funds" don't exist.Lockboxes? Only in Al Gore's mind (or maybe his beard).

A squandered surplus? Not happening: Wednesday's estimate for the current year predicts $158 billion of black ink - hardly chump change, especially given the economy's sluggishness.

True, the surplus projection is down from earlier estimates. But that's partly because of an intentional tax cut and partly because of an economy that began to slow last year - under Bill Clinton.

And speaking of the tax cut, it was the Dems who wanted to send cash rebates to taxpayers this year. Yes, President Bush supported them. But for Democrats now to be blaming Bush for giving away the store is the height of gall. Squared.

Then there's the unreliability of the projections themselves, especially the 10-year forecast.

The biggest problem is they don't factor in the stimulative impact of the cut, particularly in the later years. It well may turn out that the fall in tax revenues due to the cuts is less than the cuts themselves! And that the bottom line is far more hearty than projected.

Meanwhile, there's something very telling about all the Bush budget-bashing.

Why, after all, bemoan the fact that Washington is taxing Americans only $158 billion more than it plans to spend? Could it be because pols had hoped to spend even more?

Shouldn't taxpayers rejoice in low surpluses, which imply that Americans are not being overtaxed as much as if the surpluses were large?

Indeed, if there's anything to bemoan, it's that while Washington continues to spend taxpayers' money at post-World War II record rates, it's still skimming even more from Americans than it spends - as much as it spends!

Washington - Democrats, in particular - need to remember something about surplus government revenue.

It belongs to the people who earned it.

The American people.

The best surplus is no surplus.