For Social Security
by Ed Henry
..........With President Clinton conducting town hall meetings on Social Security and making a pledge to devote a full year to "saving" Social Security, the amount of misinformation, disinformation, and outright propaganda about Social Security is reaching preposterous proportions.
..........In an effort to bring you some of the straight, honest, and verifiable information about Social Security, we will cover the most important elements of this subject one by one.
...........................................................................Baby Boomers
..........You've all heard and read the scare stories about baby-boomers; how they will deplete Social Security's funds in the next thirty years; and how seventy to seventy-seven million baby-boomers are about to begin retiring, making it urgent we do something about Social Security before it's too late. As Clinton puts it: "fix the roof while the sun is shining."
..........Our own Gannett publication, the Rockford Register Star, on Sunday, March 22nd, published an article claiming that 77 million baby-boomers will retire in ten years or so. On April 7, this same newspaper reprinted part of an Associated Press story claiming that 70 million baby-boomers would break Social Security by 2029. Many other newspapers have said almost the same thing. Pay attention to the numbers. President Clinton claims there are 76 million baby-boomers.
..........If you took it upon yourself to research these baby-boomers, the best place to start would be with U.S. Census Bureau information.
..........Here's a table summarizing the Census data from 1790. See if you can find the baby-boomers and how many there are:
.............................
..........The most significant part of this table is what happened between 1930 and 1940, the era of the great depression. The rate of population growth dropped almost in half during the thirties. And then we had World War II, so the rate of growth did not come back to "normal" for some time.
..........Here's the way that the raw numbers look in a line chart:
......
..........As you can see, the period after the great depression and World War II begins a return to normal population growth. The 12.66% growth of the forties (1950 Census) was still not enough to give us the rate of 14% growth of the twenties (1930 Census) but most of this came, no doubt, after 1945 and the end of the war.
..........There definitely are baby-boomers represented by the 15.61% growth of the fifties (1960 Census) but their number is greatly exaggerated in the current debate and forecasts. From 1960 forward, everything seems right in line with the population we would have had if there had been no depression or war. The percentages drop as the raw numbers increase, due to what statisticians call a natural regression to the mean. In the fifties, there might have been as many as 6 or 7 million extra births but certainly not 70 or 77 million, and certainly not something that would throw Social Security into chaos.
..........The only way you can count 70 million boomers is to add thirty years together; i.e., add the boomers, the hippie love children, and the generation x-ers all in one batch, plus some additions for people living longer. In other words, count everything from 1945 forward for some thirty or thirty-five years. To do this, and call it unusual, is pure fiction or fear propaganda. It completely ignores the fact that, while seventy million people may begin retiring in ten years, more than eighty million will also begin replacing them in the workforce during the same time period.
.......................................................So why the myth and propaganda?
..........The last time Social Security was "in trouble" was during the early eighties. The solution at that time was to dramatically increase payroll taxes. It was the real beginning of Social Security's enormous excesses (profits after payouts) and resulting giagungha (greater than humungous) trust fund, now totaling $631 billion in excess/profits at the close of fiscal 1997.
..........The entire $631 billion Social Security Trust Fund represents money that was borrowed by Congress and used for things other than retirement --- things other than what you and I paid this money for. If they can increase the retirement age to 67, then there will be even more to steal. If they raise taxes on Social Security payments, or reduce benefits in any way, then the same thing will be accomplished.
..........Every one of the Washington borrowholics knows this. They also know that there is absolutely no way to pay it back without substantially raising income taxes and, ironically, asking the citizens of this country to pay for their folly in what amounts to a "pay-it-again-Sam" plan. Because payments must come out of new taxes, it amounts to paying ourselves back.
..........In other words, your government has ripped you off and in a perverted way is trying to blame it on the baby-boomers. The same people who stole the money in the first place have now appointed themselves saviors of a system that is not in trouble.
..........In an effort to bring you some of the straight, honest, and verifiable information about Social Security, we will cover the most important elements of this subject one by one.
...........................................................................Baby Boomers
..........You've all heard and read the scare stories about baby-boomers; how they will deplete Social Security's funds in the next thirty years; and how seventy to seventy-seven million baby-boomers are about to begin retiring, making it urgent we do something about Social Security before it's too late. As Clinton puts it: "fix the roof while the sun is shining."
..........Our own Gannett publication, the Rockford Register Star, on Sunday, March 22nd, published an article claiming that 77 million baby-boomers will retire in ten years or so. On April 7, this same newspaper reprinted part of an Associated Press story claiming that 70 million baby-boomers would break Social Security by 2029. Many other newspapers have said almost the same thing. Pay attention to the numbers. President Clinton claims there are 76 million baby-boomers.
..........If you took it upon yourself to research these baby-boomers, the best place to start would be with U.S. Census Bureau information.
..........Here's a table summarizing the Census data from 1790. See if you can find the baby-boomers and how many there are:
.............................
..........The most significant part of this table is what happened between 1930 and 1940, the era of the great depression. The rate of population growth dropped almost in half during the thirties. And then we had World War II, so the rate of growth did not come back to "normal" for some time.
..........Here's the way that the raw numbers look in a line chart:
......
..........As you can see, the period after the great depression and World War II begins a return to normal population growth. The 12.66% growth of the forties (1950 Census) was still not enough to give us the rate of 14% growth of the twenties (1930 Census) but most of this came, no doubt, after 1945 and the end of the war.
..........There definitely are baby-boomers represented by the 15.61% growth of the fifties (1960 Census) but their number is greatly exaggerated in the current debate and forecasts. From 1960 forward, everything seems right in line with the population we would have had if there had been no depression or war. The percentages drop as the raw numbers increase, due to what statisticians call a natural regression to the mean. In the fifties, there might have been as many as 6 or 7 million extra births but certainly not 70 or 77 million, and certainly not something that would throw Social Security into chaos.
..........The only way you can count 70 million boomers is to add thirty years together; i.e., add the boomers, the hippie love children, and the generation x-ers all in one batch, plus some additions for people living longer. In other words, count everything from 1945 forward for some thirty or thirty-five years. To do this, and call it unusual, is pure fiction or fear propaganda. It completely ignores the fact that, while seventy million people may begin retiring in ten years, more than eighty million will also begin replacing them in the workforce during the same time period.
.......................................................So why the myth and propaganda?
..........The last time Social Security was "in trouble" was during the early eighties. The solution at that time was to dramatically increase payroll taxes. It was the real beginning of Social Security's enormous excesses (profits after payouts) and resulting giagungha (greater than humungous) trust fund, now totaling $631 billion in excess/profits at the close of fiscal 1997.
..........The entire $631 billion Social Security Trust Fund represents money that was borrowed by Congress and used for things other than retirement --- things other than what you and I paid this money for. If they can increase the retirement age to 67, then there will be even more to steal. If they raise taxes on Social Security payments, or reduce benefits in any way, then the same thing will be accomplished.
..........Every one of the Washington borrowholics knows this. They also know that there is absolutely no way to pay it back without substantially raising income taxes and, ironically, asking the citizens of this country to pay for their folly in what amounts to a "pay-it-again-Sam" plan. Because payments must come out of new taxes, it amounts to paying ourselves back.
..........In other words, your government has ripped you off and in a perverted way is trying to blame it on the baby-boomers. The same people who stole the money in the first place have now appointed themselves saviors of a system that is not in trouble.